Global Weekly: Wait and See
US and European equity markets are recovering, but the mood is one of “wait and see.” Rising political risks are causing concern for bond markets in Europe’s periphery.
Global weekly: In the grip of oil
Oil price developments continue to grip markets. Failed talks between oil-producing countries, however, did not refrain investors from pushing major equity indices higher this week.
Global weekly: As the world turns
Worries on China and the US recede, while uncertainties around the UK and European peripheral countries resurface.
Global weekly: Markets pause
The rally seen since mid-February is taking a breather, as concerns over China, oil prices and political risks prove enough to bring it to a temporary halt.
Global weekly: End of a so-so quarter
The first quarter of 2016, which started so poorly, is ending with a sigh. A relief rally has not quite managed to return stocks to where they started the year and bond markets remain mixed.
ABN AMRO's perspective on the markets
CIO Didier Duret visited Kurt Looyens, our Country Executive for Spain, in the Marbella office, and was interviewed by journalist Michael Cruz of Essential Magazine for its April issue.
Investment strategy: fear replaced by cautious optimism
Recession fears have receded and investors are beginning to focus again on fundamentals. As markets stabilize, risky assets such as stocks are favoured over bonds.
Global weekly: Loose policies
As the US Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday, now both the ECB and the Fed are supporting markets. Financial markets continued their surge, but the US dollar fell sharply.
Global weekly: ECB pulls the strings
All eyes were on the European Central Bank (ECB) this week. The ECB surprised on Thursday with a large stimulus package, but disappointed markets with lower growth and inflation forecasts.
Global weekly: Fears recede
The fears that had gripped markets since the beginning of the year are gradually receding. Equity markets are recovering in line with commodities, oil prices and a reduction in volatility. The bond market also perked up, as investors moved into riskier segments.
Brexit: a serious issue, but not our main scenario
Britain leaving the European Union (EU) is attracting headlines and is a serious concern. The reality, however, is that the risk and uncertainty of a “Brexit” have so far only had an effect on the currency market. Brexit polls in the UK point in the direction of the UK remaining in the EU. The margin of the vote, however, is not convincing enough for it to be seen as a foregone conclusion. Our main scenario, shared by Group Economics and the Global Investment Committee, is that the UK will remain in the EU. The probability of the UK leaving the EU is estimated to be only about 35%.
Global weekly: Mixed and volatile
It has been a mixed week, as disappointing economic data, Brexit and oil prices gave markets more than enough to chew on. Equity markets, however, appear to be gradually shrugging off their problems.
Investment Strategy - Time to Increase Equities
The fear of recession is overdone, the US Federal Reserve is expected to be “on hold” in terms of rate hikes in 2016 and central banks worldwide are expected to continue to support growth, having plenty of fiscal and monetary policy levers left to use. Against this background, the Global Investment Committee decided it was time to increase equity risk across the board at their meeting on 18 February.
Global weekly: A wave of optimism
This week, financial markets were driven by a wave of optimism, owing to a rise in oil prices and the firm comment from ECB President Mario Draghi that “we will not hesitate to act”.
Global weekly: Central banks hold the key
Risks to the global economic outlook are mounting, as financial conditions tighten and oil prices slide. Central banks have the power to break the gloom.
Investment Strategy - Market turmoil: assessment and advice
Since the beginning of the year, financial markets have been in turmoil. The trigger has been a succession of fears, ranging from the threat of currency devaluation in China, the consequence of low oil prices on the energy sector and the fear that policymakers will not be able to avert a global recession.